Loan–Deposit Pressure and Financial System Stability: Evidence from Indonesian Banking Aggregates

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the structure of loan–deposit intermediation and banking sector stability in Indonesia using aggregate banking data over the period 2020–2024. Loan–deposit structure reflects the configuration of credit provision relative to deposit mobilization within the banking system, representing an important structural dimension of financial intermediation at the aggregate level. Banking sector stability is proxied by the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), which is widely used by financial authorities to assess the resilience of the banking system. Departing from studies that emphasize bank-level behavior or causal inference, this study adopts a qualitative–analytical approach supported by descriptive statistics and simple correlation analysis. Aggregate data published by Bank Indonesia are processed using R software to construct ratios, analyze trends, and explore structural associations. The results indicate that loan–deposit structure tightened gradually during the post-pandemic period, while capital adequacy remained consistently high. The correlation analysis suggests a moderate positive association between loan–deposit structure and CAR. These findings highlight the relevance of monitoring loan–deposit structure as part of macroprudential surveillance of banking system stability.